The David versus Goliath angle is used far too often in sports, but sometimes it's there kicking you in the face, and you can't ignore it. This year's Champions League final is one of those times.
In one corner, we have Real Madrid, possibly the most successful soccer club in the planet's history. Real Madrid won La Liga for the 36th time this season and will now try to win the Champions League for the 15th time. No other club has won more than seven (AC Milan). Hell, Real Madrid have lost more Champions League finals (three) than all but seven other clubs have won in this competition's history.
In the other corner, Borussia Dortmund. Now, the David analogy isn't perfect for Dortmund because it's not as though this is some tiny club without history. Dortmund won the Champions League in 1997 and lost a Champions League final to Bayern Munich in 2013. That said, Dortmund haven't won the Bundesliga since 2012 and finished fifth in the league this season.
So, it's the greatest club in the history of the world versus the fifth-place team in Germany. It's a wild matchup that nobody would've predicted at the beginning of the competition, but I don't want to diminish Dortmund's accomplishments. For all their problems at home, Dortmund advanced out of the "Group of Death" in group play, winning Group F over PSG, AC Milan and Newcastle United. It then got through Atlético Madrid and PSG again in the knockout stages. It's not here by accident, but can it pull off the unthinkable?
Real Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund
Date: Saturday, June 1 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: CBS/Paramount+
Moneyline: I'll start with the disclaimer that this bet is for 90 minutes. You can bet Real Madrid will win, including extra time and possible penalties, but the juice is much heavier, and I don't think we'll need the extra time. As I've written already, Dortmund were not expected to be here, and while they earned their place, they also had their fair share of luck.
In the semifinals, Dortmund didn't allow a goal to PSG despite PSG getting eight shots on target for a total xG (expected goals) of 4.7. PSG hit the post four different times in the second leg.
Relying on that same luck against Real Madrid isn't likely to work. While Dortmund did as good a job of limiting Kylian Mbappe as anybody can ask for in the semis, nearly everything PSG do in attack goes through Mbappe. Madrid are not nearly as limited in their options. If you remove Madrid's version of Mbappe in Vinicius Jr, they still have Jude Bellingham, Rodrygo, Toni Kroos (playing in his final match, by the way) and more. That's the beauty of Real Madrid. They don't have to play a certain way because the team is filled with players who can beat you in multiple ways. It's why they've only lost two matches all season, and both were to Atlético Madrid. The Pick: Real Madrid (-160)
Total: Real Madrid's defensive numbers haven't been great in their last four matches; even though they kept three clean sheets, the numbers miss some context. All four matches were played after Madrid had advanced past Bayern Munich to the Champions League final and after they had wrapped up the La Liga title. They were on cruise control for the most part. However, Madrid have allowed at least one goal in their last five Champions League matches and in nine of the 12 they played overall. Dortmund have played 49 matches this season and scored at least once in 42. Just because I don't think Dortmund will win doesn't mean I don't think they'll score. The Pick: Over 2.5 (-135)
Prop: As I mentioned, Dortmund did a terrific job of limiting Kylian Mbappe in the semifinals, and I can see them taking a similar approach to Madrid's Vinicius Jr. Both players have similar attributes, but there's one key difference between them.
Kylian Mbappe wants to be viewed as the best player in the world, and he might be. However, Mbappe is not what I consider a team player when on the biggest stages. In league play, Mbappe was second on the team with 7 assists, but he didn't have any in 12 Champions League matches.
On the season, Vinicius' 9 assists were second on the team behind Jude Bellingham, and he has 4 assists in the Champions League this season. It isn't hard to imagine Vini using his speed to get to the touchline and firing a cross to the front of the box where any of his teammates could slot it home. The Pick: Vinicius Jr. to record an assist (+330)
| Record | Units | |
|---|---|---|
League Play | 60-63 | +0.30 |
Champions League | 8-22 | -19.21 |
| Overall | 68-85 | -18.91 |
